Episode Details
| Title | Breaking Down Trump's Potential Trade & Economic Policies | Stephen Miran |
|---|---|
| Date | 11/13/2024 |
| Podcast | Forward Guidance ↗ |
Key Insights
Bullish:
- 🟢 $USD - Stephen is bullish on the US dollar, expecting its strength to increase due to the likely implementation of tariffs early in a potential Trump administration. This view aligns with current market expectations and is supported by historical evidence of USD appreciation during previous tariff implementations.
- “I think that if you put if you sort of put that together, I think you sort of get to get to tariffs, you know, pretty much upfront, which is not, you know, there which is not very far out of consensus and that's, you know, I think, you know, quite bullish for the dollar and we're seeing that in markets.” - Stephen (1:06:01)
- “Dollar China moved higher by, I think about 15 and a half 15 15 and a half percentage points. What that meant is that the move in the currency almost completely, not entirely, but almost completely, offset the change in the tariff.” - Stephen (15:15)
- 🟢 $ENERGY - 🔒
- 🟢 $MANUF - 🔒
Bearish:
- 🔻 $CNY - 🔒
- 🔻 $TREASURIES - 🔒