Episode Details
| Title | The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes |
|---|---|
| Date | 4/23/2025 |
| Podcast | Forward Guidance ↗ |
Key Insights
Bullish:
- 🟢 $BTC - Arthur is bullish on Bitcoin due to expected changes in Federal Reserve policy, including potential easing of monetary tightening and liquidity injections in response to market stress. He draws parallels to past market conditions and anticipates significant upside potential.
- “I think at the end of the day, the federal come around. They've already indicated that, you know, quantity of tightening is is tapering.” - Arthur (29:40)
- “Every time bond market volatility spikes, the Fed does something. It might not be QE in the traditional form of what we believe QE is, but they have so many other tools.” - Arthur (34:32)
- “I believe that was a seminal moment in sort of this risk off situation. And to me that this feels like February in that there's lots of reasons to hate the market in Bitcoin at that period of time. But if the treasury is gonna print 2 and a half trillion dollars, shit's going up.” - Arthur (46:58)
- 🟢 $GOLD - 🔒
Bearish:
- 🔻 $USTECH - 🔒
- 🔻 $USGOVT - 🔒