Episode Details
| Title | The Rug Pull on Global Liquidity | Brent Johnson on Unwind of the Yen Carry Trade, and the Exaggerated Rumors of the Dollar’s Demise |
|---|---|
| Date | 8/8/2024 |
| Podcast | Forward Guidance ↗ |
Key Insights
Bullish:
- 🟢 $US Dollar (DXY) - Discussing the potential for the US Dollar to rise due to various global economic factors and reduced supply.
- “I think we are moving into a time that is less cooperative on a global stage than it has been... I think dollar supply will be less plentiful than it has been over the last 20 or 30 years. But all of that US dollar debt still exists, and therefore, all of that US dollar demand still exists. And when you have the same level of demand with falling supply, what happens to price? Price rises.” - Brent (0:00)
- “If we get into a situation where this is no longer just a valuation change and this is some kind of a crisis or develops into a crisis or some kind of a geopolitical event, I would expect to see the dollar rally significantly on that.” - Brent (0:00)
- “I think taking a small amount of money and betting on asymmetric opportunities is a fantastic way to go. One way is you could just do it directly and buy calls on the DXY or UUP or whatever it is.” - Brent (0:00)
- “The dollar falling actually is what keeps the system going. It's when this it's when the dollar goes higher that things start to break.” - Brent (0:00)
- “If you get the direction of the dollar wrong, it's very hard to have your portfolio do well... understanding what the dollar will do will dramatically help, you understand what's going on in the world.” - Brent (0:00)
- “If the dollar underlies the the global economy, and it currently does... If we get into a situation that's a liquidity squeeze, then the dollar will rise.” - Brent (0:00)
- “I think the whole the whole you know, the dollar is going to die, or it's gonna go through hyperinflation. It it it just can't last... that is, in my opinion, one of the least likely things to happen.” - Brent (0:00)🔒
- “I think the perception of the future of the dollar is is completely wrong. And when you can invest a small amount of money on a perception that is widely held that is wrong, that small amount of money has the potential to be a lot of money.” - Brent (0:00)🔒
- “I think we have reached a point in global debt where debt is going to start to be repudiated, including US treasuries... As money flows out of bonds, especially other countries' sovereign bonds, I think one of the places it will find a home is in US equities.” - Brent (0:00)🔒
- “If you look back over the last 40 years at all the monetary policies that the fed has done... The dollar rising is what causes the Fed to go do QE.” - Brent (0:00)🔒
- “If you look at all the disadvantages of the United States, there are several. If you look at all the problems, there are several. But if you look at the advantages that it has and then you compare it with the same level of analysis to the rest of the world, the US just has a number of advantages the rest of the world just doesn't have.” - Brent (0:00)🔒
- “I think the US falls last. Now is it impossible for the US to fall before being the last? It's possible, but that's a low probability event, and investing is all about banking on the probabilities.” - Brent (0:00)🔒
- 🟢 $US Large Cap Equities - 🔒
- 🟢 $Gold - 🔒
- 🟢 $US Treasuries - 🔒
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Bearish:
- 🔻 $Hong Kong Dollar - 🔒